Following its 2023 general election, Slovakia has been viewed by governments across Central Europe as a gauge for the strength of NATO and the EU. 

The election results indicate an increasingly polarised Slovakia, which may reflect the situation of the rest of Europe. The left-wing populist and pro-Russia party, Direction- Social Democracy (Smer), won 23% of the national vote and 42 seats. Smer emerged as the largest party in the hung parliament, led to power by Robert Fico, who has served as the Prime Minister of Slovakia twice already. Fico based his campaign on taunting Brussels by opposing the EU and NATO’s pro-Ukrainian stance, stating that he would “not send one single round of ammunition to Ukraine” as well as echoing Kremlin ideas of the Nazis running Ukraine. Meanwhile, the more liberal and pro-western Progressive Slovakia, led by Michal Simecka, only won 18% of the vote and 32 seats. 

In this hung parliament of 150, Voice-Social Democracy (HLAS) has emerged as a potential kingmaker party where 76 seats are needed for a majority. The party, led by former Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini, won 15% of the vote and 27 seats. 

It is unsurprising that Pellegrini, being the former leader of Smer, came to an agreement with Fico that their parties would form a coalition government with the nationalist SNS party. This was a short-lived victory as both parties were subsequently suspended from the Party of European Socialists (PES). 

It is expected that Fico as Prime Minister will have a significant role in the European power balance. With his sympathies towards Russian domestic and foreign policy, which he developed as former deputy leader of the Party of the Democratic Left, he will likely become a notable populist ‘thorn in the side’ of Brussels. Moreover, Slovakia would become the first NATO country to be openly pro-Russia. 

Fico will likely base his government on the ‘strongman’ style, exemplified by Orban in Hungary and Morawiecki in Poland. However, leading a coalition government will limit his ability to control Slovakia’s commitments to the EU and NATO.

Fico’s resignation in 2018, which concerned the murder of a journalist investigating corruption within his government, left his political record tainted. This suggests he is likely to follow the path of a more dubious leader, which we have already experienced with recent Prime Ministers. This would lead to a pattern of more authoritarian and populist governments in Central Europe, defying the established EU doctrines, further weakening its influence and leading to a multi-polar Europe with conflicting aims.

While Fico is a left-populist, there remains a clear pattern of right-wing populists emerging in Europe. This is evident by Sweden’s shift towards the right, Erdogan’s incumbency in Turkey and the rise of Alternative für Deutschland in Germany. This is part of a concerning trend of greater polarisation which threatens global democracy and is destabilising Europe’s position as a global force for change.    

If the EU weakens due to a growing rebellious populist force in Central Europe and the Balkans, this will give it less political credibility and make it a weaker financial force. A weaker EU will in turn lead to a crumbling in the strength of the NATO alliance and the West could have less military clout in the world.   

Despite this worrisome forecast, Poland has been fairly keen to keep up its NATO commitments and grow into a valuable military force that will check Russia from advancing any further into Europe. The Polish Parliamentary Election results will be announced soon and are certainly one to watch.