Tuesday the 3rd of December was like any other Tuesday in Parliament: Treasury questions, a few Urgent Questions on international issues, and a ministerial statement. Proceedings were as normal… until they were not. Enter Sarah Olney, the Liberal Democrat MP for Richmond Park, presenting a bill on Proportional Representation, under the Ten Minute Rule protocol. 

The bill was explained, heard and succeeded by a quick counter-argument from a Conservative MP; it then went to a division. Considering that both the Conservatives and Labour are largely against Proportional Representation replacing First-Past-the-Post, the Liberal Democrats could not have imagined that much could come from the division. Eventually, Tellers re-joined the Commons to announce the result we all instinctively knew was coming:

“The ayes to the right, one three eight. The noes to the left, one three six”

Eh?

There were astonished looks on some faces, some Liberal Democrats actively cheered, and many jaws landed squarely on the floor. What had just happened? A slight smile as Olney crossed the floor and presented the bill to the House, confirming its second reading. The Liberal Democrats had secured a primary win for nationwide Proportional Representation.

The Liberal Democrats ought to celebrate this victory, but they cannot now become complacent – the Second Reading shall be more difficult. Ten Minute Rule Bills are very rarely considered as serious as regular Bills, and its passage through the first stage might be owed to this. Whilst some on the Labour benches support Proportional Representation, with 59 of them voting in favour, the leadership almost certainly does not. If PR had been used in this summer’s General Election, Starmer would have secured half the seats he managed to, losing many to Reform UK and the Green Party. And it’s this fact that will be the biggest hurdle at Second Reading.

If Proportional Representation came into effect, the likelihood of any party securing an outright majority ever again would be drastically reduced, hence the opposition of the two ‘main’ parties’, Labour and the Conservatives. At its Second Reading, there is little doubt that Labour MPs will be whipped into voting against the proposal. Whilst that will not prevent true believers from voting for the proposal, it will ensure that all 402 Labour MPs turn out to vote, compared with just 109 in its First Reading. If Starmer was not aware of the Ten Minute Rule Bill before the First Reading, he certainly is now, and there is little doubt that he will be mustering the full power of the Parliamentary Labour Party to vote it down in the New Year. 

For now, supporters of PR, rejoice at this surprise and narrow Commons victory for Sarah Olney’s bill. It is a profoundly impressive feat, and few will forget the looks on MPs’ faces as the result was revealed. Relish in this moment now, because come Second Reading, the prospects of this bill do not look so favourable.